By JIM BROOKS
The Nelson County Gazette
Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009, 6 p.m. – - With nearly a week to take in all the post-election watercooler talk and speculation from my fellow political pundits, your editor has decided to draft my observations on why Jodie Haydon lost his bid for the 14th state Senate seat last Tuesday.
The simple answer is that state Rep. Jimmy Higdon outpaced Jodie in all but Nelson County, losing to Haydon by a mere 858 votes on his home turf. On last Friday night’s broadcast of “Comment on Kentucky,” C-J political writer Joe Gerth had it right — the reasons Haydon lost are complicated. How could the candidate who outspent his opponent nearly 3-to-1 lose? Below, in no particularly order, are my observations. For more discussion, don’t miss “Brooks & Company” Tuesday, Dec. 15th from 11 to Noon on WBRT AM 1320.
MISSED OPPORTUNITY/INCONSISTENT MESSAGE. Jodie Haydon hit the ground running with an excellent TV spot early in the 35-day campaign. In the ad he spoke about in tough times as a businessman you tighten your belt, and that state legislators should do so too. But in the balance of his campaign and media appearances, Haydon failed to really hammer this point across. In fact, he could have taken this issue away from his opponent had he really gone after it. But Haydon could not have done so without eroding support for expanded gambling. If he lobbied to cut state spending, how could he justify raising more revenue with gambling? As a strategy, he chose to forgo being a strong advocate of cutting the state budget, focusing instead on the need to raise more revenue. His campaign coffers show that he had thousands of dollars in support from the gambling lobby, and they were depending on him to support their issue. His statements were sometimes inconsistent; on my radio show he called himself a fiscal conservative, yet he did not support cuts to balance the budget.
WHERE’S THE GAMING? I think voters noticed that (at least in our TV/radio/media market) Haydon’s campaign ads were noticably devoid of any direct mention of expanded gaming. The truth is that in many ways, this special election was both a referendum on gaming and Gov. Steve Beshear’s not-so-secret moves to use his political power to try to change the balance of power in the state Senate.
HIS OWN WORST ENEMY. I can’t say that I was unbiased in this election, but even some of Haydon’s supporters had to wince at some of the things that came out of his mouth during the campaign.
TOP DOWN GOVERNMENT? During the first televised debate, Haydon told viewers that we need to govern “from the top down.” It didn’t matter to me which man said it, it was a statement that came across packed with arrogance, ignoring that in a democratic republic such as ours the power of those we elect comes from the consent of the governed. This quote surfaced in an ad against Haydon, which was exactly where I expected to hear it the second (and subsequent) times.
PRO-LIFE BLOW BACK. Haydon’s campaign blew it, plain and simple. There’s nothing in politics more devastating than having facts thrown in your face right before the election — facts that dispute the candidate’s statements on TV and in print.
Haydon’s debate accusation that Kentucky Right To Life withheld their endorsement of him solely because he’s a Democrat didn’t pass the smell test the night he said. An ad explaining why the group did not endorse him was subsequently published, and Haydon refused to comment to the newspaper on the specific legislation that Right To Life mentioned in their ad. Note to future candidates: You can’t vote with Pro-Choice Democrats and expect to be endorsed as a Pro Life candidate. When I saw Haydon’s campaign consultant being quoted, I knew they were already in major damage control mode. You can wave away questions from the media, but you can’t escape the truth. Haydon’s attempt to sway voters with his granddaughter’s preemie diaper in the second debate failed to sound convincing, especially in the light of the ads and media reports that followed the debate.
FAILURE TO GIVE OPPONENT DUE CREDIT. Jimmy Higdon’s campaign correctly stayed on message and targeted the main concerns the campaign’s polling indicated: jobs, affordable healthcare and education.
In a televised debate, Haydon challenged Higdon’s assertion that residents of the 14th District wanted to vote on expanded gambling. Haydon’s claim that people had lost faith in their government and wanted gambling rammed through without a vote of the people sounded like “we know what’s best” arrogance. Higdon stuck by his message and didn’t let Haydon’s challenge rattle him. The vote totals shows Higdon’s polling was indeed correct.
THIRD WORLD COUNTRY & CHICKENS. In one of the most bizarre moments in the first televised debate, Haydon gave an ominous warning about the potential impact the loss of the thoroughbred industry would have on Kentucky. As the camera zoomed in, Haydon warned that Kentucky would become “a Third World country.” Topping that remark, he continued by asking “Do you know what our No. 1 cash crop will be if that happens?” With emphatic gestures he answered his quesiton, “Chickens! Chickens!” Surely there was a better way to explain to voters the economic impact than to use the terms “Third World country” and “chickens.” In these tough economic times, does it make sense for any candidate to cry to voters that we need to save an industry – the self-described “Sport of Kings” — when it mostly caters to the elite and wealthy?
FOCUS ON GOVERNOR’S AGENDA. One of the biggest differences between the candidates during both televised debates was that Higdon’s focus stayed on constituents’ concerns, while Haydon’s focus was clearly on an agenda with expanded gambling as its primary goal. That agenda also included Haydon’s attacks on the Senate president; accusing the state GOP of a conspiracy to back standalone casinos and deny expanded gaming to the tracks; Haydon’s refusal to acknowledge the 14th District residents wanted to vote on expanded gambling; and Haydon’s overstatement of the need for expanded gambling at the state’s horse tracks. In the end, he began sounding like a lackey for Gov. Steve Beshear’s agenda.
Senator-elect Jimmy Higdon will defend his seat in less than a year, and all eyes will be watching to see if a challenger from the Democratic party comes out to give Higdon a run for his money.
While not in our district, the next race that will be worth watching will be the special election to fill Higdon’s 24th District state House seat. The Democrats may focus on that race in order to replace the Democratic seat the party lost last week in the 96th House District special election. Once Higdon is sworn-in on Dec. 16th, Gov. Steve Beshear will determine the date of the special election to fill Higdon’s seat.
With the next session of the General Assembly set to start in about a month, there will be no shortage of politics inside and outside of Frankfort.
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