Employment, income data shows county losing some ground

By JIM BROOKS
Nelson County Gazette

Tuesday, June 21, 2010, 10 p.m. (Updated with to correct add'l information) – When it comes to nostalgia, the "good old days" always seem better than they were. But if you track some of Nelson County's key economic indicators over the past 15 years, the statistical data shows that things actually were better in the past.

While the current recession has hurt employment and incomes nationally, Nelson County's downward trend pre-dates the recession, according to data compiled by Betty Pendergrass, a Bardstown resident who is employed by the Kentucky Workers Compensation Funding Commission.

Part of Pendergrass' job is to track key economic indicators which include unemployment and average income figures. Since Nelson County is her home, she naturally keeps an eye on how her home county compares with others around it, she said. Previously, Pendergrass has served as the chief financial officer of the City of Bardstown and the Nelson County treasurer.

"Unemployment stats in Nelson County have worried me during this economic slump," she said. She decided to do a historical analysis of the economic trends to see if any patterns have developed. Due to the fact that recent data reflects the impact of the recession, she extended her review of data back to 1995 with the goal of seeing long-term trends.

Pendergrass said the results she found were both surprising -- and disturbing. She discussed the trends her research found during Tuesday's edition of 1320 WBRT's "Brooks & Company" program.

UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDING UP. In 1995 Nelson County's annual unemployment rate figure was higher than the state average as well as the average for the eight-county Lincoln Trail Area Development District (LTADD). In Dec. 2000, that figure matched the state annual unemployment figure (4.2 percent) and was slightly lower that the LTADD 4.5 percent average. For the next several years, the county's annual unemployment rate stayed slightly lower than the LTADD figures and closely tracked the state annual unemployment rate (see fig. 1 at right).

But as the recession began to take hold, the county's figures unemployment quickly exceeded that of our neighbors. By Dec. 2007, Nelson County's annual rate jumped ahead of both the state and LTADD average. The graph ends with the 2009 end-of-year data, but the trend shows Nelson County's annual unemployment climbing at a faster rate than both the state and the Lincoln Trail district.

Looking at the month-to-month unemployment figures for the 24-month period from April 2008 through April 2010 (see fig. 2), Nelson County's monthly figure was higher that the LTADD average for 17 of those 24 months. The county's unemployment rate was also higher that the state monthly average during 22 of those 24 months.

In a statewide ranking of monthly unemployment figures, Nelson County's ranking also appears to be dropping. While there is a great deal of fluctuation from month to month, a graph of monthly data between April 2006 and April 2010 shows Nelson County's unemployment does indicate the county's monthly ranking appearing more frequently in the lower half of the state's 120 counties. The lower ranking means higher unemployment.

PER CAPITA INCOME. Also troubling was the fact that Nelson County workers have steadily lost ground when their per capita earnings are compared to workers in other counties in the Lincoln Trail district and around the state (see fig. 3).

From 1995 through 2002, Nelson County's per capita income was equal to or higher than both the Lincoln Trail district average and the state average. In 2003, this changed. The county's per capita income fell slightly lower than the Lincoln Trail district while still higher than the state average.

The graph shows that the trend since 2004 has been for slower growth in the county's per capita income while the overall per capital incomes of the LTADD show steady growth. This shift in income levels comes as the county's growth has outpaced that of its neighbors (see fig. 5).

LOOKING TO THE FUTURE. Pendergrass said the figures aren't intended to paint a doomsday picture of the county's economic future.

"This presents an opportunity to look back and see what we can learn from the past as we move forward," she told WBRT listeners.

She pointed to former Bardstown Mayor Gus Wilson as an example of the economic development vision when he advocated recruiting a diverse mix of business and industry to Bardstown and Nelson County. "You shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket," Pendergrass said.

For a community that has benefited from the move of the auto industry from the Rust Belt, Nelson County has also felt the pinch when the auto industry was slammed by the recession. Bringing Flowers Foods and Sykes to the community are great ways to further diversify the community's employment picture, she said.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AS A POLITICAL ISSUE. Creating more jobs for the county was a common theme in the primary races for Nelson County judge executive and Nelson Fiscal Court. As we enter the fall campaign period, the discussion on economic development and recruiting new jobs will be front and center in the minds of candidates -- and of the county's registered voters.

Our local economic development efforts typically are held close to the vest; we seldom hear publicly about companies who have considered -- or are considering -- Nelson County as the location of a new business or an expansion of an existing one. Competition for jobs in the current economic climate makes leadership and our recruiting efforts even more important, and perhaps as the November general election draws near, candidates for local office will have more specifics on how our community can better position itself and use our location, workforce and quality of living to increase our competitive advantage in job retention and recruiting.

Editor's Note: Pendergrass' research is compiled in a Microsoft Excel Workbook that may be downloaded by clicking here.

-30-