Bracing for a nasty midterm election ...
Kentucky viewed as bellwether for Democrats' electoral gains

By JIM BROOKS
Nelson County Gazette

Sunday, Nov. 5, 2006, 2 p.m. -- There's no need denying that Tuesday's national election is going to be a tough one for the GOP. Not only is it shaping up to be a referendum on President Bush's leadership and the war in Iraq, it's also forming into a Category 5 electoral hurricane named "Voters Want A Change."

Some political pundits, notably John McLaughlin of "The McLaughlin Group" PBS TV program, have referred to it as "The Perfect Storm."

It's incredible how the election has changed since the May Primary.

Six months ago, 2nd District Rep. Ron Lewis and Rep. Ann Northup of Kentucky's 3rd District were both sitting on comfortable leads, each facing a challenger who by midsummer had fallen off the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's radar screen.

Early in his political career, Mr. Lewis successfully defended his seat from a couple of worthy Democratic challengers. But for the last several election cycles, the challengers haven't required much campaigning on Lewis' part. The truth is even the Democrats didn't put much support behind most of Lewis' recent challengers.

I'm not sure where the turning point came in Weaver's campaign, but somewhere it began to connect with Democrats -- many of whom have likely been crossover voters for Lewis. Some pundits have said that the Lewis TV attack ad that connected Weaver with a Kentucky National Guard personnel scandal only helped Weaver's campaign; others said it was a sign Lewis' campaign was becoming desperate.

Whatever the result, it was clear 8 weeks ago that Weaver was picking up momentum. Lewis' refusal to appear at a statewide KET debate only gave the Weaver camp additional fuel to stoke the fires of electoral discontent.

While Lewis has skipped the KET debates for the past few years -- I'm sure in part its a strategy to not acknowledge the other campaign as a threat -- it was bad move this year. With his first "real" challenger in years, Lewis could have take away at least one of Weaver's campaign complaints, and likely defused several others.

I can't recall another recent Lewis challenger that has stirred up the level of support that Weaver has, at least here in Nelson County. Can you extrapolate his popularity here with a districtwide win? That, my friends, will be the question answered Tuesday at the polls.

KENTUCKY A BELLWETHER FOR HOUSE, SENATE RACES. More than one news story in recent days has mentioned Kentucky's House races as being a bellwether of just how far the Democratic tide will roll over the Republican control of the House -- and yes, even the U.S. Senate.

In Kentucky's 4th District, incumbent Rep. Geoff Davis and former Rep. Ken Lucas have been battling it out for weeks. Each campaign has polling that shows it hanging onto a slim lead, even though Davis's campaign has been on the defensive trying to gain the lead for months.

As noted on "Comment on Kentucky" Friday night, any incumbent that isn't holding a fair-sized lead by Nov. 1 is in deep trouble. Unfortunately, this assessment not only applies to Davis, but also to the incumbents in Kentucky's 2nd and 3rd Districts.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political analysis site, has Kentucky's 4th District listed as a "Toss Up," and lists Northup and Lewis's races as "Lean Republican."

The troubling statistic, no matter who wins the Kentucky races, is that 34 House seats held by the GOP are listed by Cook as "Toss Ups."

If Davis, Lewis and Northup are defeated Tuesday, then it's likely the Democrats' gains in the House will go past 30 seats. If the Democratic tide rolls high enough, as pointed out by the "McLaughlin Group" Friday night, it's looking more and more possible that the Democrats will also take control of the U.S. Senate. According to the McLaughlin panel, the Senate will come down to a couple of seats that will determine who has control.

1994 ALL OVER AGAIN? I recall Election Night in November 1994 and watching the Republican Revolution unfold. The GOP won 54 House seats that night and eight in the Senate. My Democratic newsroom friends were in shock, with one telling me she was going to "move to Canada" rather than live in a U.S. with a GOP-led House and Senate.

The difference between 1994 and 2006 is that the Democrats were caught essentially by surprise. The GOP has seen the train coming, but events outside its control make it difficult if not impossible to stop.

The war in Iraq, the president's unpopularity, the scandals in Congress (both houses), not to mention the many missteps of our Republican Kentucky governor and his administration, all have added to what amounts to an electoral mandate for change (or in coarser terms, "Vote the bums out!").

Republicans in this midterm election seem powerless to stop the train that's bearing down on them. Maybe 1994 was more humane to the Democrats who lost: At least they didn't know what hit them that November night 12 years ago.