Campaign signs as polling data: Incumbents aren't safe bets

Yard signs vs votes.

Monday, May 15, 2006 -- If political yard signs are an indicator of the number of votes a candidate will receive, then the incumbent candidates in the May Primary election have a reason to worry.

Only two of the incumbent candidates in six primary races would win their seats -- judging solely from the yard signs counted during a survey of the county's major thoroughfares.

METHOD TO THE MADNESS. Beginning at the Court Square in Bardstown, political yard signs for all candidates in the various races were counted on four major routes: north on US31E to Spencer County; south on US31E to LaRue County; east on US150 to Washington County and west on US62 to Hardin County.

Signs off of the main highways were not counted, only those along the major corridors running north, south, east and west. Since many yard signs are placed in neighborhoods, the results may or may not be representative of a candidate's support. Your mileage may vary.

NELSON COUNTY JUDGE-EXECUTIVE. In the countywide survey, challenger Kenny Fogle topped incumbent Dean Watts by 10 yard signs, 50 signs to 40. Of the four routes driven, Fogle's total topped Watts by the greatest number of signs in the southern end of Nelson County.

NELSON COUNTY SHERIFF. Sheriff Mike Newton was one of the two incumbents who had more signs along the routes than his challengers. Newton did particularly well in southern Nelson County; he has the first visible campaign sign entering Nelson County from LaRue County (Riverside Liquors, just inside the Nelson-LaRue county line).

John Rice and Kenny Downs were nearly equal in the number of signs. Rice's strongest area appeared to be along Louisville Road north to Spencer County.

NELSON COUNTY JAILER. Challenger John Ryan wins the race for the highest number of signs. Though he reported problems with them disappearing from certain areas, his sign total was still tops.

Ryan's largest numbers were in the south end of the county. Incumbent Dorcas Figg did well on the north end of the county.

MAGISTRATE DISTRICT 1. Maynard Wimsett wins this race hands down. While he didn't have an enormous number of signs, his were well done and very visible. Challenger Dale Clark's signs were handmade and only three were visible during the survey. There were actually more yard signs still in place for former candidate Kenny Dones in the surveyed area than there were for Clark. Dones died in a tragic motorcycle accident March 30th. His name will remain on the ballot in District 1, though votes cast for him will not be counted.

MAGISTRATE DISTRICT 2. John Downs was the run-away winner, with signs scattered around Bardstown and in eastern parts of the county. Sam Hutchins was second, followed by a distant Raymond Greer and Debbie A. Davis. Hutchins is very popular in his home area of Botland, with reports of many, many signs on the side roads in that area of the county. These weren't counted during our survey.

MAGISTRATE DISTRICT 4. David Shields tops incumbent Tim Hutchins by a single sign. Austin Weller and Bill Osborne follow in third and fourth place (the totals would have been greater had I traveled deeper into the heart of District 4).

MAGISTRATE DISTRICT 5. None of the candidates had signs along US31E north between Bardstown and High Grove, and none were visible between Bardstown and Washington County. Had more time been available, the writer would have traveled deeply into District 5 for the survey. No results to report.